Silicon Valley Switcheroo --
$7 Becomes $3.50 and Vice Versa

Office Market Heads South...  My friend Ian Stuart with Colliers International in Pleasanton, CA (Silicon Valley -- well, kind of) describes the harsh reality of his market in his latest e-newsletter, Silicon Valley Real Estate Gossip, as follows: "$7.00 & $3.50 ... these were last year's figures
-- $7.00 per-square-foot-per-month rents and $3.50 per-square-foot commissions.  Interestingly, the same figures are around this year -- except this year it's $3.50 rents and $7.00 commissions(?)!"  Oh-oh.  That sounds like a correction.  And it's a refrain that I hear frequently from professionals around the country as their markets slow way down. 

Here's an exercise.  Go to BizJournals.com and search for the word "sublease."  You'll find 20 references in the last month in the various business journals around the country.  Samples: "More Subleases May Slice Office Rates," "Hidden Office Vacancies Push Rates Up," "Glut of Office Subleases."  Or go to the Wall Street Journal Online (subscription required) and search for "sublease."  You'll find 14 mentions in the last 30 days, including "Vacancies Soar As Firms Back Out of Deals," which quotes Greg Davies, CEO of CPS in Santa Clara, CA, as stating that occupied space in Silicon Valley fell 3.5 million square feet in the first quarter of 2001. 

It seems to me that most of this sublease activity just arose in the last 90-120 days.  So I began to wonder, "How in the heck do you track a fast moving market?"  Well, with the strong exception of CB Richard Ellis, don't bother looking on the web for current market conditions in Silicon Valley.  Most of the information is totally out of date.  But CB publishes a terrific first quarter 2001 report (Research / Local Reports Worldwide / choose San Jose / then Silicon Valley-San Jose Office Market).  NOTHING, of course, will replace a live person knowledgeable about local conditions.   But when the market is moving fast, your public web site can look lame when you're posting last year's stats.  No, I'm not naming names! ... What are your favorite sources of online, up-to-date research?

PikeNet Forum ... Last chance to book a cheap flight and cheap room.  Hey, you'll get a cool PikeNet mouse pad, too.  See you in 10 days. ... PikeNet Forum, San Francisco, May 2-4, 2001. ... www.pikenet.com/forum

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