Future Tense: Have Your Machine Call My Machine

Prediction Nirvana... I've always thought that the best job on the planet would be working for the Institute for the Future (IFTF), which forecasts "critical technological, demographic, and business trends" TEN YEARS in the future.  (After all, who's gonna remember what you said?)  So it was a real treat to listen to IFTF's Paul Saffo speak at NACORE's High-Tech Special Interest Group conference at Oracle's Conference Center in Redwood City, CA, last week.  His talk was titled "From Suburbia to Cyburbia: Commercial Real Estate in a Post-Digital Age."

According to Saffo, the greatest challenge in predicting the future is the difficulty that we humans have understanding non-linear change.  Because rather than a steady progression, change occurs more like an "S" with change occurring slowly at first before climbing rapidly and then leveling off.  In fact, "Most ideas take twenty years to become an overnight success."  So that's the challenge corporate real estate faces.  Where is my organization on the S curve?  And, by the way, has anybody ever designed a lease to fit an S curve?  I don't think so.  

Here are Saffo's three major trends over the next ten to twenty years: the wireless net, efficient fuel cells and new air transportation.  Hey, I told you that he was out there.  So here's a translation. ... The new Internet is a world of machines talking to machines in a totally geo-coded world.  For example, you're driving down the highway in your MBZ (or Ford Explorer?) and you hear a voice: "In three minutes you will pass Wolfgang Motors; your oil change is 3,000 miles overdue; for $29 we will change your oil and you'll be on your way in 10 minutes."  Whoa. ... New, inexpensive fuel cells will enable us "to unplug from the electric grid" which will enable mass migration beyond the suburbs. ... And small, safe airplanes operating out of secondary airports will make it more efficient to integrate far-flung operations. ... Got the picture?  Just remember, "Don't confuse a clear view with a short distance."

--Peter Pike / ppike@pikenet.com