PikeNet Dispatch, August 19, 2003
Vol 8 No. 64 (693), "More than 9,000 subscribers"
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Do You Play Moneyball?
 
Gut Check Time... What can you learn about real estate from baseball? How about the difficulty of changing an organization? That's the message from Michael Lewis' captivating new book, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. Lewis provides a ringside seat to the tug of war between an "unscientific culture" (traditional baseball) and the "scientific method" (represented by the Oakland A's). Just witness baseball scouts, "spittoons in hand," discussing the upcoming draft. Yuck.

It reminded me of those speculative conversations about what some (fill-in-the-blank) owner, tenant or manager would do. Lots of hunches and gut feelings -- few hard facts. The difference with baseball, of course, is that there is a mountain of accurate, publicly-available statistics to prove a point. And still it's hard to change minds.

Real estate data, by contrast, is private and much more subjective. For example, the New York Times wrote recently about the economist Steven Levitt and his provocative research, "The Probablility That a Real-Estate Agent Is Cheating You" (Aug 3, 2003). Levitt, who studied 50,000 home sales in Cook County, IL, found that "Real estate agents' homes stayed on the market about 10 days longer and sold for 2 percent more." So Levitt argues that agents do a better job of selling their own homes than their clients' homes. Oh-oh. Is this true?

--Peter Pike

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