Predicting the Future... How would you prepare a strategic real estate plan for your company's next 40,000 employees? Wow. That's a mind boggling task. But it's exactly the challenge faced by Wade Fransson, VP CRE Strategic Planning at Countrywide Financial.

Last week I spoke with Fransson about the collection of data for this task. As you can imagine, there is a huge amount of historical and forecast data on population growth, labor force composition and education statistics -- all linked to 331 well-defined MSAs (Metropolitan Statistical Areas) around the U.S.

So it's relatively easy to build a model predicting future costs of doing business in various locations -- except for real estate costs. Ideally, there should be a real estate index for each MSA similar to the Consumer Price Index.

Perhaps it could be based upon leasing costs (say, 500k sf, office space, 10 years) or the cost per square foot to buy a new building. More important than absolute costs are the relative cost differences between MSAs.

According to Fransson, currently available real estate data is way too fragmented. No one company maintains standardized statistics in the format he's seeking. He wonders why there's no commonly accepted index to help corporate tenants plan for their space needs.

So what do you think is the best source of standardized cost data across all markets? How do other corporations incorporate real estate costs into their future planning?

Spread the Word... Many thanks to Bret Hardy at Colliers Seeley, sponsor of this week's Dispatch. Colliers Seeley is marketing Heritage Fields in Irvine, CA, via online auction. If you would like to tell Dispatch readers about your services, send e-mail or call 415-461-4703.

--Peter Pike