PikeNet Dispatch, April 21, 2005
Vol 10 No. 32 (844), "More than 9,000 subscribers"
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Residential Real Estate Bubble?
 

Get Rich Quick... "People have admired me for my nerve. My smile ... is prompted by a clear conscience." That's Charles Ponzi speaking on August 2, 1920, just eleven days before his arrest as a crook.

It sounds preposterous, but it's true. In 1920, Ponzi collected $9.6 million ($94 million in 2005) from 30,000 "investors" with the promise of 50% interest in 45 days. At the height of his popularity, Ponzi literally filled waste baskets with cash as hundreds of people lined the street outside his office waiting to hand over their money.

Of course, we all know that Ponzi's investing "secret" was simply paying early investors off with later investors' money. And Mitchell Zuckoff tells this colorful saga in his entertaining new book, Ponzi's Scheme: The True Story of a Financial Legend.

I couldn't help thinking about Ponzi recently while scanning two full-page advertisements for get-rich-quick real estate seminars. "Discover the Profit-Producing Strategies of America's #1 Millionaire Real Estate Investor" ... "How to Find Real Estate for 30% to 50% Below Market Value."

According to the New York Times (Mar 25, 2005), "Real estate-crazed Americans have started behaving in ways that eerily recall the stock market obsession of the late 1990's." Think about this: last year 25% of all single-family homes were bought by investors.

Could there be a residential real estate bubble brewing? Not according to David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, who argues in his new book, Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?, that "real estate investors will 'experience substantial and satisfying wealth gains' into the next decade."

But economist Robert Shiller presents a bleaker view of residential real estate in the new edition of his 2000 best-seller, Irrational Exuberance. Here's what he told the Times, "We're going through something very similar in real estate that we did with stocks. It's driven by the same forces: that investments can't go bad; that it has the potential to make you rich; that you'll regret it if you don't; that it looks expensive but is really not."

Personal Note: Residential real estate is NOT commercial real estate. I've always thought that there is a low correlation between the dynamics of the two markets. What do you think?

--Peter Pike

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